Lead Actuary

We are Central East ICB, the new organisationentrusted with serving more than 3.5 million people across Bedfordshire, Luton, Milton Keynes, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough and Hertfordshire.

We are responsible for making sure that the NHS can continue to support our community – now, and in the future. Everything we do will be guided by our core purpose: to do what best serves the population of this area.

We promise to focus on what makes the biggest difference to people’s lives – acting earlier to help prevent illness and detect disease and making it easier for our community to get the health care they need, closer to home, whenever that’s possible.

If you need support with the application process, please contact our People Team at .

Read about our priorities in our strategy document, Our Way .

Job overview

The Lead Actuary is a senior technical and professional leadership role within the Strategic Value Unit, working across the integrated Strategic Value Unit and Population Health Unit. The postholder will lead the actuarial discipline and ensure actuarial methods inform strategic commissioning, population health management, evaluation, financial planning and stewardship of ICB resources.

The role will use actuarial analysis to understand future population need, demand, utilisation, outcomes, expenditure and financial risk. Working within a multidisciplinary decision intelligence function, the postholder will translate this evidence into practical recommendations for strategic planning, commissioning, payment and risk arrangements.

Proposed Interview Dates: 19th - 20th November

Main duties of the job

The postholder will lead actuarial work from problem definition and data specification through modelling, assurance, interpretation and implementation. They will select proportionate methods and provide technical assurance for high-impact forecasts, risk analyses and financial models.

The role will:

• provide professional leadership and lead actuarial programmes supporting ICB priorities;
• apply actuarial forecasting, risk, scenario and financial modelling to population need, demand, utilisation, expenditure and sustainability;
• advise on population-based budgets, payment and risk-sharing arrangements;
• set standards for modelling, assumptions, documentation, validation and technical assurance;
• integrate actuarial evidence with wider evidence to inform recommendations, implementation and monitoring;
• build organisational capability through line management, coaching and shared methods and resources.

Working for our organisation

We are committed to promoting equal opportunities to achieve equity of access, experience and outcomes and to recognising and valuing people’s differences. We are passionate about creating an inclusive workplace that promotes and values diversity; we see this as a strength and part of our founding mission, values and behaviours. We know through experience that different ideas, perspectives and backgrounds create a stronger and more creative work environment that delivers patient outcomes.

We are committed to creating the best place to work, where your contribution is valued, your wellbeing is supported and all our colleagues can reach their full potential. We welcome and encourage applications from all areas of the community, who meet the criteria for the role, regardless of their protected characteristic. We work to ensure that our recruitment processes are as inclusive as possible to everyone, including making adjustments for people who have a disability or long-term condition and support with the recruitment process for people with lived experience.

We are happy to discuss flexible working options for all roles.

We operate a Carer friendly working environment that is supportive and inclusive. We actively encourage Carers to self-identify themselves.

We are a Disability Confident Employer and commit to shortlisting suitable applicants who meet the essential criteria for an interview. Please inform us of any adjustments you may require.

Detailed job description and main responsibilities

A. Professional leadership and strategy

• Lead the actuarial discipline within the Strategic Value Unit, setting its direction and aligning the work programme and capability with ICB priorities.
• Identify where actuarial methods can improve strategic and commissioning decisions and advocate proportionate approaches reflecting the question, evidence, uncertainty and intended use.
• Ensure actuarial work complies with applicable professional and technical standards and promotes professional judgement, constructive challenge and proportionate assurance.

B. Actuarial modelling, forecasting and risk

• Lead complex actuarial modelling of population need, service demand, utilisation, outcomes, expenditure and financial risk.
• Develop and assess long-term forecasts and assumptions reflecting demographic change, morbidity, historical experience, activity and cost trends, policy, service transformation, available evidence and the relevant time horizon.
• Apply scenario, sensitivity and probabilistic methods to quantify the range and likelihood of future outcomes.
• Ensure model performance, uncertainty and limitations are transparent and conclusions proportionate to the evidence.

C. Strategic planning and financial sustainability

• Apply actuarial analysis to strategic planning and commissioning, assessing the resource implications of population change, demographic and non-demographic growth, service transformation and new models of care.
• Assess how alternative demand, activity, capacity, cost and intervention scenarios affect medium- and long-term financial sustainability.
• Work with finance, commissioning, health economics and planning colleagues to distinguish underlying expenditure trends from short-term variation and explain the implications of financial risk, volatility and uncertainty.

D. Commissioning, payment and risk arrangements

• Advise on commissioning and payment approaches where population need, future resource use and risk are material, including population-based budgets, risk adjustment, capitated or blended payment, risk-sharing and outcomes-based arrangements.
• Model the allocation and potential consequences of financial risk for commissioners and providers under alternative contractual or payment arrangements.
• Work with health economists, finance and contracting colleagues to consider financial incentives, risk and expected population outcomes together.

E. Data, assumptions and technical assurance

• Lead analysis of complex population, activity, utilisation, outcome, cost and financial data, assessing provenance, completeness, linkage, bias and fitness for purpose.
• Work with data, digital and information governance colleagues to define requirements and secure authorised access.
• Establish and document robust assumptions using historical experience, external evidence, trend analysis and expert judgement, making data limitations and uncertainty explicit.
• Assure high-impact actuarial analyses through proportionate validation, peer review, independent challenge and sensitivity testing, supported by reproducible methods, documentation and audit trails.

F. Insight, influence and multidisciplinary working

• Work with senior decision-makers to define actuarial questions and communicate recommendations, forecasts, risks, assumptions and uncertainty clearly to technical and non-technical audiences.
• Produce or assure actuarial content for strategic plans, business cases, option appraisals, commissioning proposals and committee p